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Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season/Arani
01Q.ARANI INVEST.90Q Hi, South Atlantic. If you keep this up, you should get a naming list. Dunno if this is going to be storm strength, or even fully tropical, but there is a model run from GFDL which brings it just on-shore somewhere around the border between the Brazilian states of Bahia and Espirito Santo and then back out with tropical storm force winds. --Patteroast 18:03, March 11, 2011 (UTC) :Wow, the South Atlantic seems to be getting more conducive to tropical cyclone developement recently. Just going by the wikipedia page, there's been 6 tropical/subtropical cyclones since 2004. Is that because of anything (such as Global Warming?) Or maybe it's only recently been noticed because of better equiptment? Hmm. - Forgot to sign HurricaneFiona 20:11, March 11, 2011 (UTC) ::My uneducated guess is that it's probably a pattern, better technology in detection of storms for this area and probably higher SSTs globally. Yqt1001 20:14, March 11, 2011 (UTC) :It's just a luck streak in my book; for example, since 1997, 4 tropical cyclones have hit Central America from the Pacific side; Andres 1997 as a depression in El Salvador, Adrian 2005 as a TD in Honduras, Alma in 2008 as a TS in Nicaragua, and Agatha in 2010 as a TS in Guatemala. 2007's Barbara also hit just west of the Mexico-Guatemala border in June 2007. Somehow, we went 6 straight years thus far in the U.S. without a single east coast landfalling hurricane and/or major hurricane. Weird things... I don't know if this year will be dead based on the current activity in the SHem(particularly the SWIO), but I don't really know what to expect for now. Also, just like 90L in the North Atlantic, 90Q isn't a future named storm in my book. Ryan1000 20:40, March 11, 2011 (UTC) :Latest GFDL run takes this to Category 2! Will we see our second ever hurricane-strength cyclone out of this? Jake52 03:20, March 13, 2011 (UTC) ::Jake, I don't know if GDFL is overexaggerating, but they would have to seem pretty confident to take 90Q to Catarina strength... I still don't know if it will develop or not, but tropical waters adjacent to South America usually aren't favorable for TC's. Storms are extremly rare in the SAtl/SE Pac, but even though climate change may be helping storms form more often here, storms here are still extremly rare and I personally don't foresee 90Q becoming a Catarina, ect. Ryan1000 13:15, March 13, 2011 (UTC) :::I have confidence that it will get up to a category 1 storm..only because the models do take into account what usually stops storms from forming. If those elements are not there, it is perfectly possible. It is late summer there. Yqt1001 13:35, March 13, 2011 (UTC) ::I know the SHem seasons are reversed from the NHem seasons, but the South Atlantic isn't in the same league as the Indian Ocean and Southeast Pacific. The shear and water temperatures don't normally match up. But we'll just have to wait and see... Ryan1000 15:14, March 13, 2011 (UTC) Re-invested, pressure at the airport closest to it is 1003mb. (SBVT) Yqt1001 04:40, March 14, 2011 (UTC) :Developing rapidly, pressure now 1000mb. I feel very confident this storm will get a name. (or atleast reach TS status) Yqt1001 20:58, March 14, 2011 (UTC) ::WTF? Really? Why do I suddenly get the feeling that a Catarina-like storm will happen again? Ryan1000 21:41, March 14, 2011 (UTC) :::Models don't show it becoming a category 2 now, but still category 1. Oh and its subtropical now! (cant confirm it, by word of mouth though) Yqt1001 21:47, March 14, 2011 (UTC) Subtropical Depression (01Q) Geez finding information on storms in the south Atlantic are hard, however I can confirm it is a subtropical depression. But now MeteoBrazil has said that it is Tropical Storm Juliana, but no confirmed reports that it is a tropical storm yet. With an average of 2 subtropical storms per year, the south Atlantic could have a 3 storm name list if it were to become a (very inactive) season. Yqt1001 22:47, March 14, 2011 (UTC) :I don't officially name SAtl storms, but 90Q has a long way to go to pull a Catarina; from the way I'm seeing it, it is pretty much heading out to sea... Ryan1000 23:23, March 14, 2011 (UTC) ::Not sure if anyone has updated it recently, but I don't know quite yet if "Juliana" is onto us... it will likely be a fishspinner either way, and until then, it just could be interesting to watch. Ryan1000 20:04, March 15, 2011 (UTC) Subtropical Storm Arani Aaaaand its been named! 60mph winds, making it the second strongest tropical cyclone in the south atlantic! Though it will probably go out to sea, but this is a very rare and exciting event nonetheless. Yqt1001 21:07, March 15, 2011 (UTC) :And the first time a SAtl named storm formed for two straight years. I will become even more exited if it becomes "Cyclone Arani" by tomorrow! Don't know if everyone's just waiting until August/September, but this is a very unusual event to behold! We could all wake up for a day or so! Reminds me of Omeka in last year's EPac season to a certain extent. Ryan1000 21:50, March 15, 2011 (UTC) ::Seems it is fully tropical, not subtropical. Anyways I would've been around for Omeka if I wasn't on vacation. Though the lack of activity surprises me a bit, its almost like people only care about north Atlantic storms! Yqt1001 22:02, March 15, 2011 (UTC) :::Activity on Hurricane Wiki usually spikes up when a massive major hurricane, ect, threatens the U.S. coastline, as does activity on Wikipedia. The 2008 season is a good example of that. Yqt, if you see the first "retirements at a glance" section that year, almost 15 or so different users came to make their calls in the section. The 2008 forum got that much attention. The part two section of that season also went on very long, but most of the part two was just chatting about info behind the retirees. The 2009 season was an el nino on the other hand, and no one really paid attention to the year. Eric(SkyFury) explained in July of that year that he saw 2009(at that point) as everywhere was quiet(back then, I was the "76" IP guy there). The number of storms that formed worldwide in 2009 wasn't very far below the long term average, but most of the storms worldwide in 2009 were weak, short-lived, or remained at sea, which is why it was inactive. The only part of 2009 that got decent attention other than that was Rick of the pacific season forum. Ryan1000 23:58, March 15, 2011 (UTC) ::::The thing with the North Atlantic, it's effects are normally more imminent then anywhere else. I barely heard anything about Yasi this year, couple of news reports. Katrina reports went on for weeks. If you listen to the media, round here at least, you most likely wouldn't know there were tropical cyclones anywhere but the Atlantic! I don't remember hearing very much at all about Cyclone Nargis, back in 2008, for example. Anyway, on Arani here... I can't see this making it to Hurricane intensity. It's looking a little worse then it did. HurricaneFiona 16:56, March 16, 2011 (UTC) :::That's because everyone pays attention to U.S. hurricanes a lot. There are many storms that threaten the U.S, but it gets more media attention than other countries like Mexico or Australia. I hope the U.S. hasn't forgotten any bad storms in 2004/2005, or 2008's Ike and Gustav, but we've gone through two straight years without a U.S. hurricane, and a third will make people feel easier around hurricanes and not want to evacuate as often. That's what I am fearing for 2011 or any future seasons. Ryan1000 20:57, March 16, 2011 (UTC) Arani is now extra-tropical, was still fun to watch though! Yqt1001 00:03, March 17, 2011 (UTC) :Guess we got the party started a little early, haven't we? Was fun tracking you, Arani! Ryan1000 11:31, March 17, 2011 (UTC)